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Smart Volume Analysis
In previous posts I gave the Smart Money perspective for Candles, Chart Patterns and Indicators. Before moving on to the background study of charts, understanding price spread, and getting into strategies, I want to establish a clear understanding of what volume means.
The definition of volume:
In the stock market, volume refers to the total number of shares that exchange hands over any given time period.
In any volume bar several types of transactions might be taking place all at once. They are : buying, covering short sells, selling, selling short.
By itsself, volume only shows activity. VSA is not volume analysis, price spread analysis, nor volume and price analysis on a single bar or candle. For instance: high volume on an up move does not necessarily mean the next move will be up. There could have been hidden selling within that move.
VSA teaches that weakness comes in on up moves and strength comes in on down moves. From my last blog post, remember:
1. Bullish volume is increasing volume on up-moves and decreasing volume on down-moves.
2. Bearish volume is increasing volume on down-moves and decreasing volume on up-moves.
To Smart Money "accumulate means to buy as much of the stock as you can, without significantly putting the price up against your own buying, until there are few, or no more shares available at the price level you have been buying at. This buying usually takes place after a bear move has taken place in the stock market as a whole...The lower prices now look attractive." [TW]
This is a good time to incorporate Williams perspective on The Path of Least Resistance:
1. It takes an increase of buying (demand), on up-days or bars, to force the market up.
The appearance of no Demand (low volume) on an up-move, shows little or no buying. Which means, if there is no trading going on in one direction, the path of least resistance is generally in the opposite direction.
2. It takes an increase of selling (supply), on down-days or bars , to force the market down.
The appearance of no Supply (low volume) on a down-move shows little or no selling pressure. Which means, if there is no trading going on in one direction, the path of least resistance is generally in the opposite direction.
VSA is the combination of analyzing volume to price spread in the context of the background which includes the general market and multiple timeframes. It is within the context of the background that volume shows it's weight in the final analysis:
"It [volume] is often looked at for confirming evidence of price trend and price reversal patterns. For patterns such as triangles that are the product of a period of indecision or consolidation in stock price, volume is usually light during the formation of the pattern and increases on a breakout from the pattern. For any pattern or trendline penetration, a breakout with increasing volume is more an indication that prices will continue in the direction of the breakout than a breakout on low volume." [Trade10.com]
About the Author
http://www.informedtrades.com/blogs/magic/
Drunk History vol. 2 - Featuring Jack Black